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Trace Mayer tweeted that he believes Bitcoin is currently undervalued, and that his target price for this coming February (only four months away) is $27,395 per Bitcoin.
He bases this prediction on the steady increase of Bitcoin’s 200 day moving average. Mayer is extrapolating the rise of the 200 day moving average, assuming it will reach $5,767 by February. If this is the case, he asserts that a per-coin value of 4.75 times the moving average, or $27,395, would be a “fair” price.
Who is he?
Trace Mayer, J.D., was one of the “first popular bloggers to publicly recommend Blockchain technology” according to his website. At the time, Mayer recommended that his followers purchase Bitcoin, the price per coin was just $0.25.
Like most Bitcoin early adopters, Mayer is extremely wealthy, having recently challenged Roger Ver to a 25,000 BTC wager. There are very few people in the world with enough juice to make $121 mln bets. In addition to his early adoption and recommendation of Bitcoin, Mayer provided seed money for Kraken, BitPay, and Armory.
On his website, Mayer describes himself as:
“An entrepreneur, investor, journalist, monetary scientist and ardent defender of the freedom of speech. Trace Mayer holds degrees in accounting and law. He studied Austrian economics focusing on Murray Rothbard and Ludwig von Mises.”
Mayer has long been concerned with privacy and regulation, fearing that IRS action and AML/KYC laws could hamper growth and incentivize bad behavior.
Technical analysis is the art of trying to determine the future price movement of an asset based on its history. While many derisively claim that it’s merely a pseudoscience, others believe that technical analysis has its roots in human psychology. Analysts are clear to point out that their work is based on probability, thus it’s possible to say that the price will likely go up or down, but the unpredictability of the markets keeps it from being a certainty.