- USD/TRY moves lower to the 5.78 level on Wednesday.
- The Turkish central bank (CBRT) left rates on hold today.
- Attention remains on potential US sanctions over S-400.
The Turkish Lira is now picking up pace and drags USD/TRY to fresh daily lows in the 5.7800 region.
USD/TRY lower on steady CBRT
TRY gained extra steam and forced spot to visit lower levels after the Turkish central bank (CBRT) left the One-Week Repo Rate unchanged at 24.0% at today’s meeting, matching the broad sentiment.
From the statement, the CBRT sees the economy running at a slow pace amidst tight monetary conditions, while the current account balance should keep improving. Regarding inflation, the central bank considers appropriate the current tight conditions in order to support disinflation.
On the not-so-bright side, US sanctions over the purchase of the Russian S-400 defence system looms larger, as well as the likeliness of further pressure on the Lira.
What to look for around TRY
The Turkish Lira is attempting a sideline theme so far this week, regaining ground lost after testing weekly lows above 5.84 vs. the buck. As usual, trade effervescence should remain as key driver in the EM FX space, while frictions between the AKP and its main opposition party in the run up to the municipal elections in Istanbul are also emerging as another source for Lira volatility. Further out, potential US-Turkey effervescence and its negative impact on TRY remains well in place involving the Russian S-400 missile system and US F-35 jets. Additionally, the independence and credibility of the CBRT should remain under the microscope against the omnipresent conflict between the government and the bank’s authorities.
USD/TRY key levels
At the moment the pair is losing 0.04% at 5.7964 and a breach of 5.6560 (low Jun.5) would open the door to 5.6306 (200-day SMA) and then 5.5743 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2019 rally). On the flip side, the next up barrier emerges at 5.8687 (55-day SMA) followed by 5.9308 (21-day SMA) and finally 6.1516 (high May 23).